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Is China's Population Really 1.3 Billion?
Sept. 1 - The population figure promoted for China that is accepted by the international community and acknowledged by Beijing is 1.3 billion.
This figure has been promoted for some years now. In assessing the reliability of this statistic, we need to look at other factors. The only way Beijing can calculate for this figure accurately is by undertaking a national population census. The last one was undertaken was in 2000/2001. This census was abandoned halfway through as the census takers could not obtain accurate responses, mainly because of distrust as to the actual purpose of the poll.
China’s population therefore continues to be based on the last complete census carried out in the country, which was 19 years ago in 1988/89. The 1.3 billion figure then, as far as we can ascertain, dates back from this census.
We will take an educated guess as to the likely trend that has happened since then. Taking the annual average global population growth figure of about 2.2 to 2.3 percent over a period of 19 years, this may add about 200-300 million Chinese. However, we are unsure how the annual death rate – statistics of which seem to not be available– would affect this estimation. The population growth for countries like Kenya and Philippines is about 4.3 percent, and for most developed countries in Europe about 1.4 percent.
Since 1976, China has adopted a one child policy. Traditionally, the Chinese rural population relies on parents supported by many children to ensure that the family can survive and prosper. Although in recent years, this one child policy has been relaxed in certain areas, it is still in force by legislation in China. This means that parents in rural areas who have more than one child can only legally register the first one. This creates a vast number of unregistered children, who have no legal registration or what is known as a hukou and cannot receive state benefits.
The majority of the illegal migrant population in China’s major cities are known to be unregistered, hence the mobile phone numbers spray painted around cities by dubious agencies and individuals that offer fake documentation to illegal migrants.Although no actual statistics exist, we could surmise a guess and estimate that unregistered post-1976 children amount to as much as 200 - 300 million people.
Therefore if you take the population figure of 1.3 billion, add in the growth since the last full census, plus the possible additional figures for unregistered children - then it could be possible that the population for China today could be anything between 1.8 to 2 billion people.
We would like to emphasize that these figures are from various personal observations and have not been formally evaluated. We accept that some of the factors above may be inaccurate. However, the main point here is that nobody, least of all the Chinese government, knows what the real population of China is today which is most probably higher than the published figure of 1.3 billion.
We are grateful to Bob Shead for bringing the question of China population to our attention and would welcome additional comments concerning this issue on these pages.
Source: china briefing
Comment: This is a reminder not to take anything here for granted or as fact. remember everything in china just for looking -beware the smoke and mirrors!
Maybe more than 1.6 billion, becuase there are so many people moving from one place to another every day. I'm sure they are not calculated.
I do not get the point of this argument, however, one thing I know is, China is populated, but not crowded as some outsiders might think.
Apart from big cities, when u go out to the rural areas you will see that the countryside looks almost deserted. You can not see dozens or hundreds of people out in the fields. Maybe your eyes can catch only a couple of farmers around.
There are some countries such as India, in which you can realise the meaning of the crowd. Having one third of the area but almost the same population, India is a truly crowded place. GO and see yourself what I mean.
it's so long that i dont read all,but #3 is right ,well done!
It is assumed that there are upwards of 10 million illegal immigrants living in the US, and therefore not included in census figures. Although China doesn't have any signifcant immigration, it does have a very large population, many with an incentive to keep some children "off" the official books. Given those factors, it is no surprise that its population is underestimated.
This briefing does have one flaw. According to my knowledge on the "one-child" policy, rural families are allowed to have a second child if their first child is a girl(in the hope they will have a boy). Of course this would only add to the argument that the population is likely underestimated.